Delphi Method for Risk Analysis of Culture Heritage
The risk analysis of historical heritage can be done by implementing a Geographic Information System (GIS). The different hazard factors and vulnerability of the monuments of the study area can be mapped using this GIS.
Hazard factors and vulnerability (FP and V) are grouped to generate different thematic maps. The following diagram shows the groups found:
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SOME KEY CONCEPTS
- Hazard: natural or anthropic aggression exerted on the surface or structure of a work leading to deterioration.
- Vulnerability: This factor depends on the condition of a building, poorly preserved monuments are more vulnerable to disturbance agents.
- Vehicle congestion: areas that attract a lot of vehíclios. Example, parking lots, shopping centers, government, etc.
- Plant Protection: The air pollution that affects a monument is tempered if the it is surrounded by vegetation.
- Weather protection: The deterioration of the monument will be less if it has a certain isolation from the weather. Example: covered.
- Accessibility: The possibility of theft and vandalism in a monument will be greater if there is not security measures such as a fence.
- Tourism: Certain areas of a work may be altered due to the large influx of tourists and the continuous flow of people.
- Urban Protection: The protection of certain urban areas leads to a protection of the monument as certain urban projects and interventions will have greater control by the relevant administration.
- Depopulation / overcrowding: The depopulation of an area leads to the neglect of the monuments are present. Overcrowding means more traffic or people and all that entails (vehíclios, vandalism, etc).
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A weighted value is assigned for FP and V within the group they belong to. Then they are overllaped to obtain final risk map. To know the weighted value is an important step in the study and it is done via the Delphi method.
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