Determinants of Initial Public Offerings: The Case of Poland // Factores determinantes de una opción pública de venta (OPV): el caso de Polonia

Autores/as

  • Tomáš Meluzín Brno University of Technology (Czech Republic)
  • Marek Zinecker Brno University of Technology (Czech Republic)
  • Justyna Łapińska Nicolas Copernicus University Torun (Poland)

Palabras clave:

Corporate Finance, going public, Initial Public Offering (IPO), determinants, Poland, Finanzas corporativas, oferta pública de venta (OPV), determinantes de una OPV, Polonia

Resumen

The main objective of this study is to indicate the influence of local macroeconomic factors, consequently GDP growth rates, the reference interest rate, industrial production growth rates, Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) returns and the volume of private equity investments, on the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) in an emerging market, Poland, over the period of 2004 to 2012. Our sample includes 218 local enterprises that conducted an IPO on the Main Market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Financial and privatized companies are excluded from the data processing. As follows from the previous studies, the situation in the year preceding the companys initial public offering is crucial. Therefore, we used a model with one-year delay for all the explanatory variables in relation to the dependent variable (i.e. number of new listing). The model estimation was performed with the Ordinary Least Squares method. The main conclusion of our model is that the GDP growth has a significant impact on the number of new issues. This result implies that the business cycle has a direct impact on the IPO activity in the Polish capital market. The next conclusion is that the attractiveness of a capital market for investors measured by annual index returns appears to be an important factor for going public activities. Surprisingly, the model could confirm that other macroeconomic and capital market factors have had no explanatory power for IPO numbers in Poland between 2004 and 2012.

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El objetivo principal del presente estudio consiste en demostrar la influencia de factores macroeconómicos locales tales como la tasa de crecimiento del Producto Interior Bruto (PIB), la tasa de interés anual de referencia, la tasa de crecimiento de la producción industrial, el retorno de la inversión del Mercado de Valores de Varsovia (GPW) y el volumen de inversiones de capital privado, en el número de ofertas públicas de venta (OPV) en un mercado emergente como el de Polonia en el periodo 2004-2012. Nuestra muestra incluye a 218 empresas locales que durante ese periodo llevaron a cabo alguna OPV en el Mercado de Valores de Varsovia. Las empresas financieras y las empresas públicas privatizadas están excluidas del estudio en el tratamiento de los datos. Como se desprende de los estudios previos, la situación financiera de las empresas durante el año precedente a la OPV es crucial; por lo tanto, hemos utilizado un modelo que tiene en cuenta los datos del año anterior para todas las variables explicativas en relación con la variable dependiente (por ejemplo, el número de nuevas entradas). El modelo de estimación se realizó usando el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios. La principal conclusión del uso de nuestro modelo es que el crecimiento del Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) tiene un impacto significativo en el número de nuevas emisiones de valores. Este resultado implica que el ciclo económico tiene un impacto directo en la actividad del Mercado de Valores de Varsovia en lo que se refiere a las OPV. La siguiente conclusión es que el atractivo de un mercado de capitales para los inversores, medido por los índices de rendimiento anuales, parece ser un factor importante en la actividad de las OPV. Sorprendentemente, el modelo podría confirmar que otros factores macroeconómicos y del mercado de capitales, no han tenido ningún poder explicativo en el número de OPV registradas en Polonia durante el periodo 2004-2012.

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Publicado

2016-11-04

Cómo citar

Meluzín, T., Zinecker, M., & Łapińska, J. (2016). Determinants of Initial Public Offerings: The Case of Poland // Factores determinantes de una opción pública de venta (OPV): el caso de Polonia. Revista De Métodos Cuantitativos Para La Economía Y La Empresa, 18, Páginas 5 a 17. Recuperado a partir de https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2202

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