Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 // Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate during the period 1985-2016

Autores/as

  • Andrés de Andrés Mosquera EAE Business School Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

Palabras clave:

ahorro de hogares, determinantes del ahorro, modelo de corrección de errores, ahorro precautorio, contracción del crédito, cointegración, household saving, saving determinants, error correction model, precautory saving, credit correction, cointegration

Resumen

El trabajo estudia el comportamiento de la tasa de ahorro de los hogares en el período de 1985 a 2016. Se examinan las variables que la literatura considera que determinan la tasa de ahorro a largo plazo: renta, riqueza, desempleo, crédito y endeudamiento, ahorro público, estructura de la población, prestaciones sociales, tipos de interés y precios. Tras revisar la cointegración de las variables elegidas, proponemos cuatro especificaciones de la tasa de ahorro en función de sus determinantes a largo plazo: la renta permanente, la riqueza, el desempleo, el crédito, la tasa de dependencia y las prestaciones sociales. En el marco del modelo de corrección de error, contrastamos complementariamente la cointegración de las variables que confirman la validez del modelo. Los resultados muestran la especial relevancia a largo plazo de la tasa de dependencia que, como variable demográfica estructural, permite prever en cierta medida la evolución de la tasa de ahorro. Las prestaciones sociales, que muestran la importancia a largo plazo del sistema de prestaciones público, junto con el crédito y el desempleo, determinan la tasa de ahorro a largo plazo en consonancia con la fase del ciclo económico. La renta laboral-permanente incide sobre la tasa de ahorro especialmente en los cambios profundos de ciclo. La repercusión a largo plazo de la riqueza es de menor magnitud.

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The paper studies the behavior of the household saving rate during the period from 1985 to 2016. We examine the variables considered by the literature to determine the long-term saving rate: Income, wealth, unemployment, credit and indebtedness, public savings, population structure, social benefits, interest rates and prices. In the framework of the error correction model, we contrast the cointegration of the variables by means of four specifications for the saving rate according to its long-term determinants: Permanent income, wealth, unemployment, credit, dependency rate and social benefits. The results show the special long-term relevance of the dependency rate, which, as a structural demographic variable, allows us to predict the evolution of the saving rate. Equally important, social benefits show the relevance of social legislation and its impact on the survival of the welfare state. In the background, credit and unemployment determine the long-term saving rate at any stage of the economic cycle. The growth of labor income affects the saving rate especially in cycle changes when expectations on permanent income are modified. We find that wealth is less relevant. Finally, we find unconsolidated evidence about the fact that imbalances on the long-term rate are corrected in the short term through changes in labor income, wealth and credit.

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Biografía del autor/a

Andrés de Andrés Mosquera, EAE Business School Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

Director Grado ADE EAE UPC

Citas

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Publicado

2017-12-20

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de Andrés Mosquera, A. (2017). Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 // Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate during the period 1985-2016. Revista De Métodos Cuantitativos Para La Economía Y La Empresa, 24, Páginas 292 a 339. Recuperado a partir de https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2759

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