Does perceived corruption influence the credit insurance market in Spain? An analysis using the Google Trends tool
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.5171Keywords:
perceived corruption, Google Trends, CDS market activity, out-of-sample analysisAbstract
In this paper, we perform an analysis about the effect of the perception of corruption in the activity of the credit insurance or CDS market in Spain during the period between 2008 and
2018. To measure the perception of corruption, we use Google Trends tool for the keyword “corrupcion”. On the other hand, to proxy the activity of the CDS market, we use the evolution
of the 5-year CDSs. Subsequently, an empirical analysis is carried out through regression methodology and out-of-sample analysis to verify the predictive capacity of the model. The
results show that perceived corruption impacts the evolution of CDSs, and its influence is greater in the years in which the country's economy does not face a crisis.
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