Demographic ageing and GDP per capita:
Global comparative evidence (1960-2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46661/rev.metodoscuant.econ.empresa.11734Keywords:
demographic ageing, GDP per capita, second demographic dividend, demographic transition, regional comparative analysisAbstract
This article analyses the relationship between demographic ageing and GDP per capita in five major regions of the world between 1960 and 2024. Five-year averages and bivariate log-linear models are used, where the logarithm of GDP per capita is the dependent variable and five ageing indicators are used. Estimates were made using ordinary least squares with robust Newey–West standard errors to correct for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. The results show a positive association between ageing and average income in most cases, with greater consistency in economies with strong institutions, high productivity and accumulated human capital. In contexts with informality, low productive diversification, or fragile social protection systems, the relationship is weaker or more unstable. It is concluded that ageing functions as a structural indicator of income level and can favour the so-called second demographic dividend when accompanied by policies that promote productivity, formal employment, savings, and innovation. The implications differ depending on the stage of demographic transition: in advanced regions, sustaining productivity and pension systems; in developing regions, strengthening human capital and institutions to convert longevity into sustainable well-being.
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